The ‘ironclad’ US-South Korea alliance is outdated. A brand new age requires a ‘titanium’ alliance.

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SEOUL—Even as Washington’s consideration is mounted on the Middle East this week, Korea might quickly rocket again to the highest of the White House’s agenda. North Korean chief Kim Jong Un may, for instance, reply to US President Donald Trump’s reported curiosity in reengaging him both by launching a public confrontation punctuated by a brand new weapons checks or by immediately providing a summit. Another chance is that North Korea escalates towards South Korea just because it senses a chance. Yet one other is {that a} regional disaster triggered by China has ripple results for deterrence and the US army presence on the Korean Peninsula. Regardless of the trigger, Washington’s capacity to attain its targets in such conditions will largely be decided by the energy of its alliance with Seoul.

With South Korean President Lee Jae-myung simply starting his time period, and with Trump having not but laid out his second-term plans for Korea points, the time is ripe for Washington to have interaction Seoul. The two nations’ objective ought to be to set a brand new basis for the alliance, one which displays the present strategic setting. The US-South Korea alliance is usually spoken about as being “born in blood” when the United States intervened to assist defend South Korea after North Korea attacked in 1950. With the seventy-fifth anniversary of the beginning of the struggle upon us, it’s time to honor that legacy however transfer past it.

Lee and Trump should lead this effort, however new politicos and previous fingers alike might want to work collectively to assist obtain actual transformation within the alliance. Neither aspect ought to default to previous formulation and platitudes. For years, Washington has referred to the venerable alliance as “ironclad” as a reassurance to Seoul. But simply as ironclad warships look highly effective however are old-fashioned, the alliance and its description ought to be up to date to fulfill the calls for of the occasions. As one US protection official reportedly put it in late May, it’s time to “modernize” the alliance and “calibrate” the US power posture on the peninsula. Perhaps “titanium” is a extra applicable description of what the alliance ought to grow to be, and under is how this transformation ought to begin.

Posture test

One foundational situation with the alliance have to be addressed as quickly as potential: US army posture in Korea, which incorporates its measurement, its composition, its missions, and the related cost-sharing. In addition, it should additionally embody how US posture impacts the alliance’s strategy towards China. Conventional knowledge from each political events in Washington and in Seoul is that the Trump administration is taking a look at chopping the US troop presence in South Korea. Informed observers count on that, at minimal, the administration will ask for extra cost-sharing for this presence, given Trump’s feedback suggesting that he would negotiate with South Korea on “payment for the big time military protection we provide.” At the identical time, South Koreans’ longstanding considerations about being both deserted or entrapped throughout a US-China struggle are coming again to the forefront.

Through the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), South Korea does pay a large portion of the prices of stationing roughly 28,000 US army members in South Korea. According to US Forces Korea, Seoul contributes round 18 %, throughout all US army expenditures in Korea, which in 2026 will add as much as the spectacular sum of about $1.2 billion. However, previous statements from Trump criticizing this settlement and citing a $10 billion determine recommend that he’ll nonetheless deem this quantity inadequate.

These numbers should not the entire story, nevertheless. Despite bristling by some South Koreans at previous calls for by Trump for Seoul to pay extra, this quantity doesn’t come within the type of a direct switch to the US Treasury as if that is “protection money” or these personnel are Hessian mercenaries for rent. Under the SMA, these funds are principally spent on items and providers offered by South Korean people and firms to maintain the US power presence. In different phrases, whereas they profit the alliance, they’re largely home subsidies for South Korea’s financial system.

Moreover, the true value, worth, and funding of the US protection dedication to South Korea is hardly captured by the roughly 28,000 uniformed army personnel of US Forces Korea. This quantity is basically designed to supply a framework and sustainment for a a lot bigger presence in a wartime state of affairs relatively than fight energy in its personal proper. Combined with massive bases, supporting infrastructure, and plenty of supporting civilian officers and contractors, this comparatively small variety of army personnel is actually the down fee for a a lot bigger dedication of forces—together with the US nuclear deterrent—that helps deter North Korea and that will guarantee Pyongyang’s defeat in a struggle. US Forces Korea’s presence, together with US and South Korean personnel intermixed in bilateral amenities, additionally serves a “tripwire” perform to strengthen deterrence, as a result of a large-scale assault by North Korea (or China) would find yourself engulfing US forces instantly, pulling the United States instantly into the battle.

The SMA is an effective deal for South Korea, and it nonetheless could be even at a a lot larger value. South Koreans might not wish to pay extra, however they might contribute far more to defraying the price of the US army presence with out it being a significant financial burden given South Korea’s gross home product of over $1.7 trillion. The United States undoubtedly advantages strategically from sustaining deterrence towards North Korea—thereby enabling regional stability, peace, and prosperity—however South Korea advantages much more from retaining this direct menace at bay.

Beyond ‘ironclad’

Stationing US forces and having main bases in South Korea present the United States strategic advantages past serving to to discourage North Korean aggression. As General Xavier Brunson, the US Forces Korea commander, famous in May, stationing forces in South Korea helps overcome the “tyranny of distance” given the dimensions of the Indo-Pacific and Korea’s key location within the area.

Relocating these US forces elsewhere could be costly, and there should not nice choices within the area for the place to ship them. In South Korea, the US forces have glorious alternatives to coach and instantly contribute to the regional stability that’s important for US and South Korean prosperity. In specific, the amenities in South Korea are key logistics hubs for the broader US presence within the Indo-Pacific, and the prospect of such bases getting used to assist the protection of Taiwan may assist deter Beijing from aggression—notably given the bases’ proximity to China.

But this worth can solely be realized if there are mutual reassurances about how the alliance will perform within the occasion of a US-China struggle. As I outlined in a memo printed final yr, the South Korean president ought to not less than tacitly affirm that Seoul will adhere to the 1953 mutual protection treaty as a two-way treaty, not only a dedication by the United States to defend South Korea towards North Korea. If, for instance, the United States have been to come back to the protection of Taiwan and China responded with strikes towards US bases, notably on the US territory of Guam, then South Korea should acknowledge that the United States couldn’t settle for Seoul remaining impartial and US Forces Korea being mere ringside spectators.

Regardless of Lee’s need to keep away from antagonizing Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s arduous to think about the Trump administration accepting that Washington have to be prepared to danger a nuclear assault by North Korea to avoid wasting Seoul whereas South Korean forces, together with US forces and bases stationed in South Korea, are to stay idle whereas Americans are dying from Chinese missile assaults. For years, Washington has been deferential to South Korean sensitivities on this situation, and on the difficulty of “strategic flexibility” for US forces in South Korea, even when coping with ostensibly “hawkish” administrations in Seoul. Now, nevertheless, it makes little sense that this could or may proceed—notably with a brand new US administration so clearly prioritizing deterrence of China and so clearly bored with allies taking the US dedication to their protection with no consideration.

The Trump and Lee administrations might want to tackle contentious points round South Korea’s monetary, political, and army dedication to the alliance in a mutually equitable means, supported by a strong and modernized mixed US-South Korea protection and army construction. If they’ll do that, then they’ll set the stage for a brand new, stronger, and mutually useful alliance that can be higher capable of hold the delicate regional peace threatened by each nuclear-armed North Korea and China.

However, if the approaching months reveal deep rifts between Seoul and Washington on the US presence in South Korea, this will likely itself result in a brand new disaster, as Pyongyang and Beijing may see a chance to fracture an alliance that they view as brittle. When put to the check, the US-South Korean alliance ought to transfer past its “ironclad” legacy and be prepared to carry up with the energy of titanium.

Markus Garlauskas is the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative on the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, main the Council’s Tiger Project on War and Deterrence within the Indo-Pacific. He is a former senior US authorities official with 20 years of service as an intelligence officer and strategist, together with as chief strategist for US Forces Korea. He posts as @Mister_G_2 on X.

The Tiger Project, an Atlantic Council effort, develops new insights and actionable suggestions for the United States, in addition to its allies and companions, to discourage and counter aggression within the Indo-Pacific. Explore our collection of labor, together with knowledgeable commentary, multimedia content material, and in-depth evaluation, on strategic protection and deterrence points within the area.

Further studying

Fri, May 30, 2025

New presidents and new nuclear developments check the United States–Republic of Korea alliance

Issue Brief
By
Heather Kearney, Amanda Mortwedt Oh

In the approaching years, the US-South Korea (Republic of Korea, or ROK) alliance is prone to be examined in not less than three elementary methods: by a regarding progress in North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile weapons program; by modifications to ROK protection capabilities and constructions, together with the institution of ROK Strategic Command (ROKSTRATCOM); and by potential technique and coverage modifications beneath new US and ROK political administrations.

Image: U.S. Army troopers cross a pontoon bridge on the Imjingang River throughout a joint river-crossing train between South Korea and the United States as part of the Freedom Shield army train within the South Korean border city of Yeoncheon, north of Seoul, South Korea. Matrix Images/Lee Sang-hoon by way of Reuters Connect.

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