SP500 – Cycle Analysis; New V-Bottom for CME_MINI:ES1! by AFCapital21

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24 Dec 2018 – V-Bottom Trough:

This marks a clear V-bottom. Both the 227-ROC and 114-ROC confirmed simultaneous constructive acceleration after worth reacing its low. Shortly after, each crossed their 57-SMA virtually in sync — growing the likelihood of a sustained bullish transfer. Price confirmed this by breaking resistance and forming a V sample. This was additional validated by the centered transferring common crossover (114-CMA crossing above 227-CMA).

25 Mar 2020 – Deep COVID Crash Trough:

During this section the priced broke beneath the help, making a deep trough. Altough each ROC strains initially confirmed robust adverse acceleration as a result of COVID-19 crash, they quickly reversed above their 57-SMAs, signaling a significant shift in momentum. This coincided with the worth breaking above the important thing resistance which was additionally crossed in 2019 when confirming the outdated V-pattern. After this breakout, a quick pullback adopted earlier than the uptrend resumed with growing power.

22 Jun 2021 to 19 Dec 2023 – Pattern

During the preliminary interval a bearish divergence was seen within the ROC, however worth and fee of change each declined making a low in early October 2022. A technical sample started to kind, which seems to align extra carefully with a symmetrical triangle; So when measuring its top and projecting it from the breakout level aligns with the brand new all-time highs that have been reached on 27 June 2025.

21 Mar 2025 – New Cycle Trough

A brand new V-bottom shaped shortly after the present cycle started. Both ROC indicators had already crossed their SMAs to the upside, exhibiting early indicators of constructive acceleration, days earlier than of worth broke via the resistance and reached the brand new report excessive.
The 227-SMA is prone to cross from beneath the quick SMA whereas a risk of a pullback improve.
Following that, the 114-CMA will in all probability has the prospect to cross again the 227-CMA, with the worth doubtlessly confirming a brand new help stage and resuming its uptrend – consistent with the broader cycle timeline.

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