Trump and von der Leyen made a deal. But the US and EU are drifting aside on commerce.

Explore the most recent developments within the Web3 area. This article dives into: “Trump and von der Leyen made a deal. But the US and EU are drifting apart on trade.”.

New Atlanticist

July 28, 2025

Trump and von der Leyen made a deal. But the US and EU are drifting aside on commerce.

By
Frances Burwell

For European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Sunday’s announcement of a commerce cope with US President Donald Trump must be seen as a private triumph. She took the chance to journey to Scotland, realizing that solely Trump might seal the deal; in spite of everything, he had responded to an earlier deal negotiated together with his cupboard officers and based mostly on a ten p.c baseline tariff by sending a letter to the European Union (EU) threatening 30 p.c tariffs. His unpredictability and their lack of a stable relationship made the result unsure—50/50 at finest, as each presidents acknowledged. Yet they nonetheless managed to provide an settlement to make sure that the most important financial partnership on the planet—price $1.7 trillion in commerce yearly—won’t be disrupted by an enormous commerce warfare. But in contrast to many commerce offers which herald a better relationship between the events, this one is extra prone to push the EU farther away from its longtime accomplice. 

For Trump, he had the optics of EU management coming to his Turnberry golf resort and reaching a deal based mostly largely on his phrases (however not his worst threats). As he mentioned throughout his press convention with von der Leyen, this was an enormous deal, a cope with the United States’ largest buying and selling accomplice. Indeed, his feedback in the course of the joint press convention had been in all probability probably the most respectful and optimistic on the EU that he has ever made.

The Turnberry deal has clearly demonstrated that the EU shouldn’t count on any favors from the United States.

That hasn’t stopped a backlash from forming in some European quarters. On Monday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou mentioned, “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, united to assert their values and defend their interests, resigns itself to submission.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomed the deal, though Merz later famous there could be prices for the German economic system. Yet, the EU member states will virtually actually maintain their noses and approve the deal when it’s put earlier than them.

Despite these totally different opinions, everybody across the European Council desk is properly conscious that offers with Trump include many uncertainties and ambiguities. The Turnberry deal just isn’t the tip, however only a framework for additional negotiations. There is, for instance, an absence of readability over these sectors topic to an investigation underneath Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, together with semiconductors and prescription drugs. While it seems that EU pharma exports to the United States, which totaled €120 billion in 2024, will likely be coated by the 15 p.c tariff fee, Trump himself forged doubt on that in the course of the press convention. Only after the Section 232 investigation is concluded is there prone to be predictability for pharma. On metal, Trump mentioned that the present 50 p.c tariffs will proceed to use, whereas von der Leyen has indicated that tariffs will likely be decreased and a quota established based mostly on historic averages.

There can be little readability about tariff reductions that von der Leyen talked about in her assertion however that the United States didn’t point out with any specificity. These embrace plane, sure chemical substances and generic medicine, in addition to some agricultural merchandise and important uncooked supplies. Instead, the White House truth sheet on the deal mentions eradicating European non-tariff boundaries, a subject on which von der Leyen was silent. Negotiations to finalize these factors are prone to be prolonged and difficult.

Trump additionally positioned a lot emphasis on an obvious EU pledge of $600 billion in new investments into the United States, which was additionally the primary level on the US truth sheet. Most doubtless, that is simply an including up of current pledges by European corporations. The German carmaker Volkswagen has dedicated twenty billion {dollars} and British-Swedish drugmaker AstraZeneca fifty billion {dollars}, for instance. It could be extraordinarily unlikely that the EU itself would offer funding capital for corporations that search to maneuver to the United States. Von der Leyen’s assertion was remarkably silent on this level, elevating questions on this factor of the deal. The EU has additionally pledged to buy $750 billion of US power exports over the following three years (a mean of $250 billion per yr), although complete US power exports in 2024 had been valued at $332 billion. Will the EU take over the majority of US power exports? That appears unrealistic. 

But there’s one sure final result of this deal: It will additional incentivize the EU to show towards a model of financial safety that’s cautious of the United States. European leaders will settle for the 15 p.c tariff as a result of it’s higher than the threatened 30 p.c, however they are going to keep in mind that it was the United States that started this spherical of tariff hikes. The EU will put much more power into opening different markets and guaranteeing that they aren’t depending on the accomplice throughout the Atlantic.

During her press convention, von der Leyen pointedly talked about current offers with Indonesia, Mexico, and the South American commerce bloc Mercosur, in addition to the continued negotiation with India. And whereas Sunday’s deal consists of pledges to purchase enormous quantities of power, in addition to weapons and different protection materiel, many in Europe are prone to see these as momentary and vital evils. Europe will use US power (though not as a lot as pledged) to scale back an much more harmful dependence on Russia. But few in Europe see US liquefied pure gasoline because the everlasting resolution that home-grown renewable power would possibly present. Defense purchases are important for Ukraine and Europe (and would doubtless have occurred with out this deal). But European governments are more and more trying to their very own inadequate protection industrial base and asking what is required to fulfill Europe’s geopolitical challenges alone.

The Turnberry deal has clearly demonstrated that the EU shouldn’t count on any favors from the United States. That will likely be underlined by the necessity to finalize many components over the following few months. As the British have found, getting promised agreements from the US facet could be difficult, particularly if Trump is distracted elsewhere and even merely adjustments his thoughts. No one in Europe must be stunned when these ambiguities and variations reemerge. It will simply be one other sign that the United States is now not a dependable accomplice and that Europe’s financial future lies with others. 

Frances Burwell is a distinguished fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

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Further studying

Sun, Jul 27, 2025

How large a deal is the brand new US-EU commerce announcement?

Fast Thinking
By
Atlantic Council

Our consultants unpack the framework for a commerce deal introduced by US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday in Scotland.

Image: US President Donald Trump shakes palms with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, after an announcement of a commerce deal between the U.S. and EU, in Turnberry, Scotland, Britain, July 27, 2025. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo

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